40 years left. Scientists have calculated when our civilization will collapse

Do you know the canaries used long ago in mines that warned miners against harmful gases? That’s good, because this combination will come in handy soon.

Mauro Bologna and Gerardo Aquino are two scientists who looked at the chances of the collapse of our civilization . The idea itself sounds great, but the comprehensive performance of this research, taking into account factors such as rising average temperature, melting glaciers, rising greenhouse gas concentrations, etc., is – according to the researchers – burdened with too many unknown variables. Therefore, Bologna and Aquino decided to focus solely on the canary in the mine , which they believe is the process of deforestation.

More specifically, they compared the rate of deforestation on our planet with the index of global consumption and human population. As the authors point out, during the deforestation process, the Earth has already lost tens of millions of square kilometers of forests. And if we maintain the current rate of growth of our population, consumption and deforestation in the next two to four decades, our civilization will collapse. At least that’s what Bologna and Aquino say, adding that the statistical probability of avoiding a catastrophic collapse is now less than 10 percent.

Why Deforestation?

Our planet’s forests are essential to life. It’s not just the oxygen they produce. Trees on Earth also have several other important functions – they regulate water management, store carbon dioxide, and protect the soil on which they grow, thus ensuring the functioning of many smaller ecosystems.

According to both scientists, further deforestation will lead us to a critical point where the remaining trees on our planet will no longer cope with their key functions. And this will be the beginning of the end of human civilization. According to Bologlna and Aquino, of course.

Dr. Gerardo Aquino works at the Alan Turing Institute in London, creating statistical models and predicting armed conflicts on their basis. Mauro Bologna is a professor at the University of Tarapaca in Chile, where he deals with statistics. The juxtaposition of the data on which they created the model for predicting the collapse of humanity seems somewhat abstract, but both scientists are experienced statisticians.

Of course, we could try and use these 10 percent. chances of avoiding a disaster. According to Bologna and Aquino, the key issue would be to limit deforestation, further invest in green energy and change our way of thinking – moving from prioritizing economics to culture. Scientists can be childishly naive outside of their area of ​​expertise.

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40 years left. Scientists have calculated when our civilization will collapse

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